My first tennis bet was an outright on Stan Wawrinka to win the 2014 Australian Open @ 20/1. It wasn’t a large wager but upon winning my interest in tennis betting grew as not only was I a passionate follower of the sport, I also had a keen interest in the technical/tactical side of the game. While this knowledge brought profits, I quickly learned I had many areas to master in regards to betting discipline and bankroll management – all the knowledge in the world will not help a bettor that doesn’t control their risk.
8 years later, I am now a full-time investor in Tennis. My edge comes from holistic analysis, understanding the technical side of tennis. Bookmakers’ algorithms are based around data – but on niche surfaces such as clay and grass, this data isn’t perfect due to the lack of match time some players get on the surface across a season.
A key focus is on matchups, how one player’s style matches up against their opponents, and how effective these styles are on each surface (i.e. heavy topspin groundstrokes that are extremely effective on clay are equally ineffective on a grass court).
Rhythm plays a huge part in matchups, if a player is returning from injury or in poor form their rhythm usually suffers as they aren’t striking the ball as cleanly as they know they can.
The atmospheric conditions also play a part in matchups. For example, a player who would normally struggle on clay can get a boost playing in altitude as the ball travels through the air faster.
Watching the tour all season long gives me an edge, players are not robotic, they will have upswings and downswings throughout their careers, carefully watching body language to identify a player’s motivation or physical state allows me to find situational spots where players are over/undervalued during the season.
All these niches allow me to price matches myself before bookmaker’s release lines, allowing me to spot market inaccuracies. Tennis is a highly complex sport which makes betting on it successfully extremely difficult for novice bettors. Injuries, chokes and momentum swings can turn matches, so managing and diversifying risk is very important.
Since entering the public sphere with my tennis bets in January 2018 I’ve recorded a Profit On Turnover of 4.30% in high-liquid tournaments. My average stake is 1.5% Bankroll (1.5 units).
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