How do you find your edge?
Each aspect of a race from the driver, the trainer to where a horse is at in its preparation all come into how the race will be run and have to be weighted correctly when making a decision about backing a runner at a given price.
A huge part of harness racing comes down to intent from both drivers and trainers. Understanding and being able to correctly predict how they may view a race goes a long way to predicting the tempo of a race and where each runner might settle in the run, this in turn goes a long way to predicting the result. An ability to identify characteristics of trainers and drivers is hugely beneficial and really helps to nail down races.
I started sharing my thoughts and analysis on Twitter a few years ago now and built a bit of a following that way which allowed me access to other form analysts, drivers and trainers which has been huge for my journey as a form analyst. For the first half of 2022 I had returns of around 20% and for the second half of 2022 I had returns of about 14% on a $50 normal bet and $100 best bet suggested staking model. This was just a simplistic model to help allow anyone to follow along without needing to work out any complicated system of staking. I love harness racing and a big factor in wanting to share my thoughts on twitter was really wanting to grow the sport and give more casual punters something to follow along.
This year I came on board with Pro Punter Alert as a full time analyst. Since the beginning of the year the last 10 full months I have only had one losing month with a small loss in September with every other month showing a profit and have been running at over 10% ROI at every QLD harness racing track.
I think the first thing you learn when doing form on the trots is the importance of maps. While maps are important in any code of racing, in harness racing it might be the difference between a horse going around at $1.80 or $31.
Every track has unique characteristics which play a key role in how races are run. In Queensland they have 3 main tracks: Albion Park, Redcliffe and Marburg.
Albion Park is the metro track, a fast 1000m track with a sprint lane which generally plays heavily to runners up on speed and on the fence.
Redcliffe is the second track in Queensland, an 800m track with a unique triangle shape. Generally a very fair track with most horses getting their chance depending on race shape and tempo.
Marburg they race less regularly at and is quite rural, it’s only 700m and generally heavily favour runners in the lead or outside the leader.
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