The latest round of this heavyweight match is sure not to disappoint. Lined under a field goal by most market-making books, the market is expecting an evenly matched contest. Much of this game hinges on the health of several players. More on that in a bit. I’ll start with the expected pace to get an idea of how many possessions we can expect in this game. Both offenses are in the bottom third of the league in the pace of play. We should expect the pace to be around 3.5% below that of an average game. The weather is expected to be sub-freezing with the wind around 11 mph. We should expect some impact from the cold. It won’t be on par with what we witnessed last week, but two strong-armed QBs throwing a slick football are sure to result in some drops. This game is setting up as a slight under given the weather and the slow pace.
When KC has the ball, they will be counting on one of the best to ever do it to bail them out. All season, the WR core has let down the offense, and I don’t expect that to suddenly stop. This offense is not the 2022 Chiefs. In 2022, they boasted the number 1 offensive success rate in the league. This year they are 12th. That’s a huge drop. Not only will the Chiefs have to contend with a tough Bills game day environment, but a quality Bills defense as well. The Bills have been plagued by injuries on defense all year. Despite this, they finished in the top third of the league in Success Rate (vs. a very tough schedule). The question for Buffalo is the same as it’s been all year, who will be healthy and play? Bernard, a quality LB is questionable, Rasul Douglas, a quality CB is questionable, Taron Johnson another quality secondary player is listed as questionable. If Buffalo can’t get these key defenders on the field, then we may see the version of the Bills defense that had people wondering if they had lost a step. Just as the Chiefs posted a quality performance, they may catch another break and face a beat-up Bills defense. The must-see matchup when the Chiefs have the ball won’t be a player on the field but rather two opposing coaches that are both considered elite. Which wrinkles will McDermot throw at Mahomes and Reid, and will Reid come into the game with some plays he’s been holding back?
My Assessment: Last week was a unicorn performance against an undermanned Dolphin team. KC will struggle to hold up at Tackle vs. the Bills pass rush. Mahomes gets forced into some bad situations when the Chiefs have the ball.
Most will focus on the Buffalo Defense vs. the KC Offense in this game. I really want to see the KC Defense vs. the Buffalo Offense. Two respective top-five units. Kansas City has been led by their defense all season. Despite not having a ton of talent on Defense, the Chiefs are always well-coached and scheme ways to confuse the opposing QB. Josh Allen is no stranger to mistakes but is perhaps playing his best football with new coordinator Joe Brady calling the shots. Brady has utilized Allen’s legs more than in past seasons. The Chiefs do not have a ton of quality capable of getting to Allen, so look for the coaching staff to be forced into scheming a pass rush. This could be difficult with two box defenders questionable going into the matchup. Buffalo, on the other hand, is healthy on offense and looks to take advantage of an offensive line that has played together much of the season. Another matchup factor is the size difference. Buffalo has a small quick receiving core, and KC has lots of lanky corners; this could lead struggles with certain route combinations and when Allen scrambles.
My Assessment: The Bills O-line is a mismatch for the Chiefs who have only Chris Jones there to disrupt. KC will likely bring pressure. Buffalo can easily counter with its quick game/screen game. Diggs won’t have anyone that can stay with him deep and Kincaid should find plenty of volume. KC should be able to slow down the run game, but Allen’s legs will force KC to put an extra secondary player in the box. If the Buffalo WR core can find space, this could get out of hand early.
Final Prediction: Bills 24-21. If you find a Bills -2.5 -115 (1.87) or better take it.
