Chiefs versus 49ers, once again – an intriguing matchup indeed. Both teams possess the ability to swiftly advance down the field and accumulate points in clusters. Surprisingly, they both opt for a slower pace of play, ranking in the bottom ten in terms of speed. The 49ers, in particular, choose a deliberate pace, slower than any other NFL team. Despite both coaches occasionally employing a hurry-up strategy to confound the defense, blindly trusting the under becomes questionable. Another factor complicating matters for the under is the indoor venue. Typically, indoor venues provide a quicker track, generally favoring the offense. So, does this mean we should lean towards the Over? Well, not exactly – let’s explore that further.
When the Chiefs take possession, we witness an all-time great trio comprising Mahomes, Kelce, and Reid. Reid, known for pulling out some extra tricks, is sure to introduce a few more during this game. Mahomes appears to be finding a comfortable rhythm with his receiving corps, and the Chiefs’ running game has come alive in recent weeks, alleviating Mahomes from high-leverage situations. Despite some signs of life for the Chiefs’ offense, the Chiefs’ offensive tackles stand out as a clear weakness. Going up against a formidable D-line, including the likes of Nick Bosa, arguably the league’s best edge player, playing on artificial turf should add another layer of difficulty for Smith and Taylor. While the Lions managed to run against the 49ers with arguably the best O-line in the league, repeating this feat on Sunday seems unlikely. The 49ers are solid against the run, and the Chiefs are just finding their rhythm on the ground. The Chiefs may aim to exploit the 49ers’ secondary, arguably their weakest unit. However, the 49ers are versatile on the backend, with many of their DBs adept at both run defense and coverage. The critical matchup to watch is whether Kelce can find space underneath for quick completions and first downs.
When the 49ers have possession, we witness a clash of strengths – the 49ers boasting the best offense this season, and the Chiefs performing like the best defense in the NFL as of late. The Chiefs’ strategy to contain this offense will likely involve disrupting Purdy’s rhythm, especially given his recent shaky performances. Shanahan is expected to counter this with a quick game to Deebo Samuel and a heavy reliance on the screen game. Another avenue the 49ers might explore is staying in heavy formations to exploit the Chiefs’ limited D-line depth. While the Chiefs possess talent at corner positions, making downfield throws challenging for Purdy, the matchup between Kittle and the Chiefs’ safeties could be decisive. The 49ers may aim to get Kittle down the field in one-on-one situations with the Chiefs’ safeties, leveraging Shanahan’s expertise in stressing secondary assignments and creating open runners down the field. Despite the Chiefs having a disciplined secondary, facing a team as well-coached as the 49ers poses a unique challenge. The 49ers, however, face concerns regarding their ability to stage a comeback if they fall behind. The Chiefs’ defense is less forgiving compared to the Packers or the Lions. Additionally, can Purdy overcome his recurrent slow starts or risk imploding against a defense savvy enough to exploit his weaknesses?
So, how should we approach betting on this game? While I’ve outlined why I’m cautious about the Under, the Over doesn’t seem promising either. Both offenses tend to play at a deliberate pace, and I anticipate a more conservative approach from both coaching staffs in their game planning. Examining the spread reveals a noticeable difference in the depth charts of the two teams. Furthermore, Reid’s offensive coaching brilliance, typically a marvel, has been eclipsed by the Chiefs’ defense this season. Defense, being less stable than offense, inclines me towards favoring the 49ers. The line currently stands at 49ers by 2, having shifted from 1/1.5. As long as it remains at -2, I feel comfortable laying 2.
Pick the 49ers -2
Matt Heuermann – NFL Specialist
